Models back off intensification of Caribbean disturbance, NHC says to 'monitor' system

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A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean, but the NHC says environmental conditions could support some gradual development as the system moves northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the NHC, a tropical depression could form toward the end of this week or this weekend.

While most major models agree on the system moving toward Florida after that, they have really backed off intensity. No models are hinting at the development of a hurricane or anything major.
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