Musetti - Rune | ATP French Open ???????? #tennisbettingtips #rune #musetti #sportsbetting

My Analyse ????????

We’ve basically got one of the most consistent player on clay this season, with a 17:3 record and only losses against Alcaraz twice and Draper in Madrid.

If you're able to reach the semi-finals of Wimbledon and, in this clay season, a final in Monte Carlo, a semi-final in Rome, and a semi-final in Madrid — these are confirmations on confirmations that Musetti became one of the most consistent players.

The problem here is that he faces a player who is very difficult to read and can beat any player at any moment.

I mean, we don’t know in the very next game how Rune will step on court and with which mindset. The best example is the retirement in Monte Carlo, then nobody expected anything from him in Barcelona, he takes the title, beats Alcaraz with beautiful tennis, then retires again the next tournament in Madrid. Basically, there’s no consistency pattern in his game but rather an unpredictable high-risk, high-reward game.

Rune beat Musetti two times in 2023 and 2024, but that was way before the transformation of Musetti post-grass season 2024. We can see a gap of 109 points between both players on clay in favor of Musetti, and that gives us an odd of 1.53 for Musetti and 2.88 for Rune, basically the same odds as the bookmakers.

Both players have the same numbers in terms of serve, winners, and unforced errors in the first three rounds. We can also see that both have those small ups and downs during the match — I would say higher ups and higher downs on Rune’s side

But we also saw Musetti struggling against Navone in the first two sets, and not to forget that in the first set against Hanfmann he was 15-40 down on serve with two set points against him. So both players look like they’re giving some things away, and knowing that both will have their ups and downs, I believe targeting lines related to a long match is the best option here.

I don’t really see either player taking this in a clean 3-0. If there’s one who could do it in three, it’s Musetti — but only if Rune shows up with a “don’t care” attitude and bad behavior like we saw at some moments during his match against Halys.

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