Red Sea Crisis: Houthi Shipping Attacks, Trade and Escalation

The global economic system is built on trade, and to trade, you need ships and safe, efficient routes. Often, that mean travelling through maritime choke points, where geography squeezes trade through a concentrated point.

In the Red Sea, one of those chokepoints has come under pressure as a result of attacks by the Houthi movement based in Yemen, driving hundreds of vessels to divert to much longer routes around Africa.

Now, US and Houthi forces have exchanged fire, with several Houthi boats reportedly being destroyed attempting to board a container ship.

And beyond the risk of this particular campaign, the sight of relatively cheap attacks reshaping the contours of global trade may serve as a warning to decision makers elsewhere. After all, if technology and techniques can be applied in the Red Sea, why not at other maritime chokepoints around the world?

On that cheery note, welcome to 2024.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats, Corrections & Comments:

There are two flubs in the Audio that need to be mentioned on this one:

Firstly - marine traffic .com, not marine tracker (flubbed because I use it as a tracker I think)

Secondly - prosperity guardian not, as I say *twice*, prosperity garden

Thirdly - there are a few times where i refer to a 'trip' intending to mean a 'round trip' but this is not uniform. I apologise for the ambiguity

all other normal caveats and limitations apply:

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Relevant Reading (will be expanded when I'm at my other PC):

US CENTCOM
https://twitter.com/CENTCOM

All ship traffic imagery generated using marinetraffic.com

UN Review of Maritime Transport 2023
https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2023

The CMF
https://combinedmaritimeforces.com/

Prosperity Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-allies-reluctant-red-sea-task-force-2023-12-28/

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/07/politics/us-military-commercial-ships-red-sea-houthi-militants/index.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/25/analysis-has-the-us-led-red-sea-force-calmed-shippers-amid-houthi-attacks

Houthi boats sunk by US
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67851897

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-military/2023/12/31/us-navy-sinks-three-houthi-small-boats-in-hijack-attempt-in-red-sea/

Reports on disruption and costs:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/suez-disruption-new-inflation-risk-horizon-2023-12-19/

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/21/container-prices-hit-10000-freight-inflation-soars-in-red-sea-chaos.html

https://www.joc.com/article/fresh-surcharges-pile-asia-europe-shippers-amid-red-sea-attacks_20231229.html

Houthis:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemen-houthis-flex-military-muscle-parade-riyadh-seeks-ceasefire-2023-09-21/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/26/uk-maritime-group-reports-drones-explosion-off-yemen-coast

https://www.ajot.com/news/spiraling-cost-in-ocean-freight-shipping-rates-is-becoming-a-reality-as-suez-canal-remains-out-of-bounds

ACAPS (Yemen control map)
https://www.acaps.org/en/about-us/who-we-are

Image of VLS reloading
https://maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-navy-tries-reloading-vls-missile-cells-with-a-commercial-osvhttps://maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-navy-tries-reloading-vls-missile-cells-with-a-commercial-osv

SM6 upgrades
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27068/navy-to-supersize-its-ultra-versatile-sm-6-missile-for-even-longer-range-and-higher-speed

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Red Sea Crisis
00:01:14 — What Am I Talking About
00:02:05 — Setting The Stage
00:11:49 — Motivation And Strikes
00:14:04 — Engagements And Targets
00:20:40 — Diversions And The Economics Of Disruptions
00:28:35 — Forces And Responses
00:40:36 — Options For Escalation
00:48:33 — The Chokepoint Problem
00:58:57 — Why This Matters
01:06:32 — Conclusion
01:06:56 — Channel Update