TRADE SETUPS: NFP Reaction Plan #shorts #nfp #forex

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TRADE SETUPS: NFP Reaction Plan
???? July 1:30pm BST - US Jobs Report dropped. Here's the key narrative:

???? Weak NFP = Fed Cut Bets Rise

???? Jobs ≤ 70k
???? Unemployment ≥ 4.4%
???? Earnings ≤ 3.9%
→ Buy: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
→ Sell: S&P 500

???? Strong NFP = Fed Cut Bets Fade

???? Jobs ≥ 150k
???? Unemployment ≤ 4.2%
???? Earnings ≥ 3.9%
→ Sell: EUR/USD
→ Buy: S&P 500

????Post-Print Price Action
✔️ Headline: 147k (strong)
✔️ Unemployment: 4.1% (beat)
✔️ Avg Earnings: 0.2% MoM (soft)
→ Mixed print. Result: USD up, EUR/USD hit vol level, S&P rally

???? Watch: Nike breakout to $82.77 | Silver longs still in play
???? Avoid shorting GBP/USD – political recovery bid in place