Understanding Variance in Sports Betting | Sports Betting 101

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In this sports betting tutorial, Matt, a former full-time data analyst, discusses the importance of probability and statistics as a sharp sports bettor. To reach your potential and maximize profits, you need to understand sports betting math.

Matt uses examples of a coin flip with a weighted coin to help you understand expected value in sports betting. He talks about coin flip math, variance and the math behind the gamblers fallacy. Matt details why understanding variance is such an important concept in sports betting.

Even if you give yourself a large enough sample size, there are still 5% of bettors who could have bad luck. Matt equates this to a weighted coin landing on heads 52% of the time instead of 50%. Over time, heads will land more often than tails, but there is still the unlucky times where it doesn't.

Over time (1000 bets) it is over a 90% chance that sports bettors will be profitable with Positive EV betting. It is important to understand variance and accept the nature of variance when it comes to betting on sports.

He is a sharp sports bettor from Denver and uses math, data and Positive EV bets to profit in sports betting. Matt is a full-time data analyst in Virginia and uses sports betting as a fun & lucrative side hustle.

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