Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and XAUUSD (December 8-12, 2025)

In today’s weekly forecast, I break down the exact levels and structure shifts I’m watching on DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and XAUUSD (gold). Some of these markets are sitting right on top of major SMC decision points that could set the tone for the week.

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----------CHAPTERS---------

0:00 Intro
0:10 DXY
4:20 EURUSD
9:48 GBPUSD
14:50 XAUUSD

---------DXY Forecast---------

The DXY played out nicely last week and now everything comes down to the September FVG and the 98.60 low.

Right now the four hour structure is a bit tricky because a lot of traders are using the wrong low for their CHoCH. Under SMC rules, you cannot use a low that did not produce a confirmed break of structure, and this market never closed above that recent swing high. Those wicks do not count.

So the real structural low that matters is still 98.60 because that is the one that created the last valid break of structure. If the dollar tags the September FVG and holds above 98.60, bulls remain in control. If we close below that level, momentum shifts and we get a true change of character.

This area is critical and it will influence EURUSD, GBPUSD, and gold as we head into the new week.

---------EURUSD Forecast---------

EURUSD technically printed a confirmed change of character on the four hour after breaking above 1.16668.

We still need to see buyers defend 1.1590 because that low produced the last break of structure. As long as the market stays above it, the euro is still bullish off the lows and the higher low structure supports that idea.

The challenge is the inverse relationship with DXY. If the dollar holds above 98.60 and bounces, this bullish CHoCH on EURUSD might fail. If DXY breaks lower, the euro has room to confirm a larger trend shift.

Last week came within a few pips of sweeping the equal lows I wanted, but the direction still played out. EURUSD is trading inside a distribution channel where the lower band is discount and the upper band is premium. As long as 1.1590 holds, the bullish bias stays intact.

---------GBPUSD Forecast---------

GBPUSD hit the September FVG target cleanly last week after bouncing from the weekly FEG area.

The pound is technically bullish on the one hour and four hour, printing higher highs and higher lows. The big question is whether this move is the start of a full trend shift or just relief inside a larger downtrend.

We still have not seen a clean confirmed change of character on the higher timeframes because several highs only produced wicks rather than closes. With DXY still above its key support, the broader trend is not settled yet.

Short term the pound is bullish, but there are several inefficiencies below that could attract price unless DXY breaks down first. This is a spot where patience might save you from getting caught in a deeper pullback.

---------XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast---------

Gold was completely sideways last week, but the structure is still bullish after the recent break of structure and potential change of character on the four hour.

I am still watching the big confluence pocket below that includes the weekly bullish FEG, the daily FEG, and the sell side single print. That entire region remains unmitigated and would make a great pullback zone before any continuation higher.

The trend line and the higher timeframe lows around 4K are the key levels. As long as gold stays above those, buyers remain in control. The only question now is whether price fills the buy side inefficiencies above first or dips into the FEG pocket below before bouncing.

Gold is straightforward this week. Two clear targets and a clean invalidation level.

--------DISCLAIMER--------

The information in this video is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any market. Trading involves significant risk and you can lose money. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions. Use this content at your own risk.