Why Backtesting Might Be Overrated ???? Sports Betting #gambling #sportsbetting #podcast #draftking

Thanks! Share it with your friends!

You disliked this video. Thanks for the feedback!

Added 1 month ago by

14 Views

On this episode of Gambling with Good JuJu, we break down DraftKings’ Pick Six format — and it’s not what most bettors think. Juice and guest GP explain how payouts are pari-mutuel (yep, like horse racing), meaning your winnings depend on how popular your picks are. Go chalk, win less. Get contrarian, win big. ????

Then, we pivot to some serious modeling talk — college football betting systems, the pros and cons of backtesting, and a hilarious misunderstanding about whether GP was being sarcastic about the “most anticipated episode ever.” ????

If you like game theory, DFS strategy, or just geeking out on smart betting edges — this clip is for you.

4 key reasons why backtesting is essential in sports betting:

✅ Validate Your Strategy:
Backtesting shows how your betting system would have performed historically, helping you avoid relying on gut feelings or unproven ideas.

✅ Identify Edge (or Lack Thereof):
By running historical data through your model, you can determine whether there's a true edge — or if you're just flipping coins.

✅ Optimize Parameters:
It helps fine-tune your inputs (like market conditions, timeframes, or team metrics) to improve ROI and reduce variance.

✅ Build Confidence & Discipline:
Seeing positive results from historical data boosts confidence, making it easier to stick to the strategy during inevitable losing streaks.